Lots of interesting news at Computex this year in terms of ultra-small notebooks. I’m wondering: Are we seeing the death of the UMPC–or should I say Microsoft’s Origami–as we know it?
CNet is covering the new product announcements from Via at Computex. One of my favorites, is the NanoBook prototype:
“The NanoBook will run for about five hours on a battery charge when running Windows XP, said Richard Brown, vice president of marketing at Via. The computer comes with a 1.2GHz C7 chip, a 30GB hard drive and up to 1GB of memory.
The NanoBook also comes with a seven-inch screen, sports a regular (albeit slightly smaller) keyboard and weighs about 1.8 pounds. PC makers will sell it for $599 or less, cheaper than similar computers. Samsung said its latest Q1 ultramobile computers, powered by Intel chips, will cost between $799 and $1,199. Oqo charges $1,499 for its PC.”
$599? Not bad. Imagine where the UMPC market would be if prices were down in this range today though.
Here’s another indication that UMPC prices need adjusting: From PC World,
“…Asustek Computer Inc. is working with Intel Corp. on a line of notebook PCs priced as low as US$199,” to be called the Eee PC 701. Other models will peak around $500.
The specs are similar to the Intel Classmate design we’ve seen earlier:
“Intel processor and either a 7-inch or 10-inch screen. They will come with Wi-Fi, a solid-state hard disk, and run either Linux or Windows XP.” The base model will come with a 2GB solid state drive (optionally up to 16GB), 512MB DDR2 memory, 3 hour battery life, with a size of 22.5×16.5×2.1cm. Oh, and a keyboard is included.
I’m not sure if either product includes a built-in touch digitizer like UMPCs have, but let’s say they don’t, I can’t imagine that a 7″ display with a resistive digitizer is all that more expensive than one without. Let’s say it adds $25. It doesn’t take much math to realize that the price range Intel, Asus, and Via are talking about is much lower than the prices given for today’s UMPCs–even though the hardware has much in common.
What are the differences in fact? Yeah, newer Intel and Via chips. Maybe that’s part of the difference. Other than this, a Classmate PC or NanoBook has a keyboard, extra plastic, and the digitizer-less display. These hardware differences justify the $200+ difference in prices as compared to today’s UMPCs? Hmmm. Something doesn’t smell right.
Here’s the thing. I love the idea that Intel, Asus, and Via are stepping up to make PCs more viable for the next billion PC owners, but is all this going to happen right in front of the collective noses of today’s UMPCs? I wonder. We may be seeing the end of the UMPC concept as Microsoft molded. We may be migrating to more of a browser-based, light OS notebook, concept. The differences are subtle and suggest that the real challenge over the next few years is going to be played out on the software side that will make these devices worthwhile to use–and bring forth the real potential of a rich, mobile experience.
It also makes me wonder: Is Vista going to find stable footing in this mobile market segment? Or will XP win out because of today’s battery practicalities? And even without Vista, what does this mean for WPF? Is it’s time right? Likewise, will this new “form factor” favor Silverlight? I think it very well might. In fact, if Silverlight is extended to support Linux and the offline experience continues to improve in the browsers (both of which I think should be done), then Silverlight could become the development platform for devices such as these.
It’s going to be interesting to see how this all ends up.
Update: UMPCPortal has some pictures of the NanoBook. It sounds like touch might be included after all, although, they aren’t sure.