Robert Scoble contemplates the value of offline technologies–in particular, how they might fit in with the technology battles between Google, Adobe, and Microsoft.
I think Robert has it basically right: That for those of us that switch computers a lot (2 or more times a year) and own more than one device (2, 3 or more), that maintaining a “desktop” metaphor on them simply is too overwhelming.
It’s too much work keeping the data in sync. It’s too much work (and too expensive) to keep the licensing straight–especially when you consider that you’re often paying for mulitiple installs when you’re just one person using the app on one or possibly two devices at a time. And who wants to keep installing stuff over and over again. I can’t believe all the time spent when I hear of people re-installing the OS or this or that application. What a waste. More and more people are going to be running into this situation too as the number of Internet-connected devices grows.
So Robert’s correct. A good product/service today is going to be one that can reach out to the top tier devices and run well on them. While writing thredr, for instance, I intentionally biased the design towards smaller displays–because that’s where more and more of my online time is going. I think this is a trend that more and more people are going to be following too–especially as the browsers in these devices improve.
To me, actually, it’s not just about online/offline. A good technology is going to work well 1) across a range of devices 2) be easier and less expensive to operate than other solutions by at least a significant factor and 3) operate inside the browser where it makes sense and outside of the browser when it makes sense.
I also think that browsers have become so important in how people use their devices, that they need to be kicked up a notch in terms of the capabilities they provide. There should be better editing and spell checking built in. There should be better graphics support. (Where “ink” can be rendered everywhere as vectors, for instance) And there should be a storage metaphor that works when I’m online or offline. An A cross-platform, Air-like technology is OK, but the first, bigger challenge is to improve the browser technologies–across the board. We’re not even close to the way they should be.
I agree time is spent less and less on a desktop and more and more on a notebook or UMPC connected to the Internet through a USB device as well as the Apple iPhone. The experience needs to be improved.